WTC final: India almost through after beating Australia in Delhi

Are India through to the WTC final?

Not quite, but they have certainly taken a giant step towards qualification. After the win in Delhi, India’s points percentage is 64.06, and while Australia are still on top with 66.67, the gap has narrowed considerably.

The only way India will miss out on a spot in the final is if they don’t win either of the last two Tests against Australia, and if Sri Lanka win 2-0 in New Zealand. If India lose their last two games against Australia, they will drop to 56.94, while two draws will leave them on 60.65. If Sri Lanka win both Tests in New Zealand, they will rise to 61.11. However, even if Sri Lanka win the series 1-0, they will only end up with 55.55%, which will be lower than India’s 56.94 even if they lose the last two Tests against Australia.

Are Australia through to the WTC final?

Even if Australia lose 4-0 to India, they will still finish on 59.65%. For them to miss out on the WTC final, they will have to lose their last two matches, and Sri Lanka will have to win both Tests in New Zealand. Even if Australia draw one of the last two Tests, they will end up on 61.40, which is marginally higher than Sri Lanka’s maximum of 61.11 (assuming they don’t lose any points due to over-rate).

What about Sri Lanka’s chances?

For Sri Lanka, the equation is simple: they must win both Tests in New Zealand, and then hope that the India-Australia series doesn’t end up 3-1 or 3-0. In those two cases both India and Australia will finish on a higher percentage than Sri Lanka, even if they win both Tests in New Zealand. If India win fewer than three Tests, Australia and Sri Lanka will qualify, and if India win 4-0, India and Sri Lanka will qualify.

But first, though, they will have to accomplish the tall order of winning both Tests in New Zealand.

Are South Africa out of contention?

Yes, South Africa are out for sure. The maximum they can reach is 55.56, while the minimum for both India (56.94) and Australia (59.65) is higher than that.

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